High Speed Rail: Do We Really Need 220 MPH Trains?

According to a feasibility analysis that has just been published by the Midwest High Speed Rail Association, trains running as fast as 220 MPH between Chicago and St. Louis are doable. The Association pegs the cost at $11.5 Billion in 2012 dollars, not including new trains or maintenance facilities.

A plan to run service at 110 MPH, which would reduce the trip on the current route to 4 hours, would cost only $2 Billion.

At first blush, this is very good news. I use Amtrak to travel to St. Louis frequently, and right now, rail travel between the two cities often takes six hours and involves several miles of single-track operation on badly-maintained track belonging to freight carriers, and frequent delays from standing on a siding for 20 minutes to let another train pass. Additionally, service is infrequent, even though more trips have been added to meet the greatly increased demand. Right now,though, it's easier to catch a plane to St. Louis than it is public transit to many Chicago suburbs.

The trouble with most plans for rebuilding the U.S. rail system is that proponents just can't leave the words "high speed" out of it. The idea, of course, is to make rail competitive with air travel, and promoters are looking at the example set by Europe and Japan. What many people are not looking at is the cost of the super-high speed service in France and Japan, and the doubts that exist regarding the sustainability of these systems, given expense involved, especially as fossil fuels become scarcer.

Note that the cost of building a true high-speed system that runs at more than 200 MPH is at least five times the cost of a line that runs at 110 MPH. Can we really justify this massive difference in cost when we are confronted with so many critical needs at the same time we are also facing a terminal decline in fossil fuel supplies and the workout of trillions of dollars of bad debt?

A train does not need to run at 200 MPH to be competitive with a plane that flies at 325 MPH, even when travel-time is the only consideration, for flying time includes many hours on the ground: the trip to and from the airport, time spent checking in and going through multiple security checkpoints. These major time-wasters can add four hours to the time spent in-flight.

Grandiose programs involving major technological upgrades and much less fuel efficiency ought to be reconsidered in favor of more practical plans that might actually be feasible within a few years and whose cheaper cost might make the difference between a system that covers all cities and major towns, and runs frequently enough to be a reasonable alternative to air and auto travel, as opposed to one that is very flashy, but too expensive to build and operate to provide extensive, reliable, and frequent service. We arguably don't need a high-tech showcase that is so expensive to build and operate that there is no chance it can ever operate profitably, and will end up being just as intermittent and unreliable as the sad service we have now. If the fuel usage and operating costs approach those of our airlines, which are failing rapidly in spite of receiving $14 Billion a year in government subsidies, then it is clearly unworkable.

The U.S. rail system of the early 20th century was the envy of the world, and private carriers were able to run profitable operations running trains at 100 MPH during the 1920s, while providing a level of luxury and creature comfort that has never been equaled by the airlines. If we could once more have railroads that operated as well and efficiently as those of that era did, we'd be well off, and it matters more to have frequent, reliable service to all cities and major towns, than it does a glittering showcase that serves few people relative to its cost.

The focus on grandiose plans to the detriment of what is practical and proven is typical of development driven by government policy rather than private enterprise that has to respond to market demands in order to survive. Instead of diverting part of the outrageous subsidies for highways and airlines to Amtrak, we would do better to remove regulatory obstructions that now strangle our railroads, and level the playing field between the various modes of transportation so that we can clearly see which is more economical and efficacious, by rolling back the subsidies that are keeping our airlines aloft and maintaining our monopolized passenger rail.

Shooting at 6549 N. Lakewood

A 19-year-old man was shot in the buttocks at 6549 N. Lakewood, in Rogers Park, on Saturday night. His current condition is unknown.

How many shootings does this make in Rogers Park for the year so far?

The Olympics Financial Time Bomb

Crain's Chicago Business, in this week's issue has very helpfully clarified the point that anti-Olympics activists have been trying to get across to the entertainment-obsessed moron supporters of the idiotic Olympics 2016, which is, in short, that we are being lied to about the cost of the games to the public, that they will be vastly more costly than advertised, and that the public will bear most or all the costs, inasmuch as Chicago must pledge to cover any costs that the private sector won't.

First, the costs that the supporters admit to keep mounting. First, the games were to cost only $700 million at the most. Then, the costs were to be capped at $2 billion or so, never mind that they ended up costing Bejing over $40 Billion, and London regrets its decision to bid for the 2012 games because the costs have run over $20 billion to the city so far. Now, according to Crain's, "With as many as 3,000 units, the proposed South Side housing complex is the single costliest item in the $4.8 Billion Olympic budget. Chicago expects private developers to pick up the construction tab, betting that they'll profit by converting the buildings to apartments and condominiums afterwards."

HUH? I mean, but the last damn thing that Chicago developers want or need is 3,000 more condos and apartments to sell or rent to a sinking midde-to-upper middle-income population in the most glutted real estate market in history , in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Does anyone seriously believe that developers will want more inventory than they already have? Does anyone really believe that the Village will not be built at the expense of the taxpayers, and at the expense to the 10,000 or so poor people whose lives will be disrupted as they are forced out of the Washington Park area to make room for the games? Chicago is glutted with unsold condos, many of which are upper-bracket units in new highrises in south Streeterville, the Near North Side, and other prime neighborhoods. The city is awash in condo foreclosures. The South Loop is an absolute disaster area comparable to Miami. But, according to the supporters of the bid, developers here will just leap at the chance to develop more condos and apartments, and that buyers will be lined up to buy or rent

Did anybody tell Daley about all this, and that we're in the middle of the unwinding of the biggest credit swindle that was ever foisted on humanity in the history of the world? We are only one leg down, and there are more foreclosures, developer foreclosures in front of us than behind us, if the record number of Notices of Default (the first stage of foreclosure) is any indication. And these will be much bigger defaults, for the commercial credit is just beginning to unravel, and the shuttered shopping malls and half-completed apartment and condo developments are stacking up allover Chicago and its suburbs.

Will all these bankrupt or struggling developers who are already up to their ears in all this crap be willing or able to finance the construction of Olympic Village? And, anyway, developers don't expect to have to support stuff like this. They expect to be supported by stuff like this. They expect to be guaranteed against business risk by TIF districts and tax abatements and other crony inducements. Anybody who thinks that private developers, if any remain who are solvent, are going to volunteer to pick up a tab that the city has already pledged to meet, is too naive to be let out alone at night.

Philip Owen, former mayor of Vancouver, is quoted. "You'd better get your checkbook, " he says, "you're going to need a lot of cash. There are always a lot of surprises." Vancouver is another city that regrets having bid the games.

Daley has decided to provide a blanket guarantee to cover operating losses incurred by private developers and businesses for the 2016 games, a decision few of our aldermen disputed and one that most of the real stakeholders- the taxpayers of Chicago- had no voice in. So much for all the assurances that this event won't cost the taxpayers a dime. Given that funding for new commercial development has collapsed and that the work0ut of the trillions of dollars of bad debt sitting on the books of failing banks will probably take another five years at least, and that most of it will never be recovered, it seems unlikely that any developer is going to be able to get financed for a risk like this, and that the public will surely be picking up the cost.

At this time, 70% of the residents of Chicago support the bid, according to polls. That's no surprise. American people are very childish and love big spectacles and love feeling like they live in the most important city on the planet, and, like most children, do not count the costs, or connect the dots between massive financial commitments reaching far into the future, on top of an already strained city budget; and our escalating taxes and fees, our hostile business climate and the continuing exit of businesses from the city to places where they are obstructed less and taxed less, and the continuing deterioration of lifeline services such as police protection, public transit, and infrastructure maintenance.

And this is not the only massive project Daley is trying to shove down our throats. The north lakefront infill with an extension of the outer drive and the construction of a marina in Edgewater or Rogers Park, is still alive. This is something Daley has wanted for a long time, and he's not about to be deflected from it by the vehement opposition of residents in affected neighborhoods of Edgewater, Rogers Park, and Evanston, nor do considerations such as the decreasing number of boat owners and the effect of a marina on lake pollution, weigh with him and his supporters; nor does the minimum cost of $400 million.

Daley and our aldermen are pledging away the money we will need to maintain and rebuild our decrepit infastructure, fund our undermanned and outgunned police force, and otherwise maintain the services we need in order for the city to function and its denizens live decently and safely on a day to day basis- all for unnecessary "vanity" projects and grand circuses that few of our citizens will be able to even attend, let alone capture any economic benefit from. The economic benefits will accrue to the developers and crony businessmen who will be guaranteed against all normal business risk.

There is not much time left to topple this inane and hideously costly project. We who oppose this project need to get busy, and apply pressure not only to our local pols, but to the people who run the games, such as Prince Albert of Monoco, who is one of the members of the International Olympic Committee. These people need to know that Chicago has neither the money nor the infrastructure to support this event.

And so do our leaders and our citizens.

Magic Jack Update:Radio Shack Stands Behind its Merchandise

I'm pleased to report that I was able to return my Magic Jack and obtain a refund in the form of an in-store credit from our neighborhood Radio Shack outlet, at Granada Center, 6445 N. Sheridan Road in Rogers Park.

Thank you, Radio Shack, for standing behind your merchandise. Given the terrible experiences unhappy buyers of the device have had dealing directly with the manufacturer, we can see that it pays to deal with a reputable local dealer whenever possible.

I did not expect to get this much when I walked into Radio Shack with the product in hand, and explained the situation. Even though I no longer had my receipt and was a cash buyer, the courteous store manager was able to find my purchase after a brief search of the date range, and issued me a store credit for the amount of the purchase. I'm a loyal customer of many years, and after this will surely remain one.

Many thanks to the courteous and knowledgeable staff of the Granada Center Radio Shack.

Is Gentrification Over: Why the City Will Continue to Gentrify and the Outer Burbs Will Fail

"Gentrification is over," announced one commentator, I forget exactly who. At first flush, this would seem to be the case, for the impetus that drove the movement of middle-class buyers into "marginal" neighborhoods is no longer there since the bursting of the housing bubble. During the housing rampage, many middle-income buyers found themselves priced out of prime and 2nd-tier neighborhoods as the prices ratcheted up rapidly, and neighborhoods like Edgewater and Rogers Park experienced an influx of such buyers.

The process now seems to have reversed itself as prices drop steeply all over Chicago, and Rogers Park, to name one "up and coming" neighborhood, has become the epicenter of foreclosures here in Chicago. This would seem to be bad news for many middle-income people who are now pretty much buried in homes and condos that are now worth substantially less than they paid for them. The Edgewater-Rogers Park area has a huge surplus of newly developed condominiums, in addition to two new residential high rise buildings, both of which are mostly empty and are having a hard time attracting tenants willing and able to spring for premium rentals as the economy deflates.

It's always difficult to see beyond the current situation, and divine from it clues as to how different the future may be. Just as it was difficult to imagine a 30% drop in real estate prices back in 2005, it is now difficult to visualize a wholesale rush back to the city and a mass disinvestment in the suburbs comparable to the disinvestment in the cities that occurred in the 50s and 60s, leaving our older cites depopulated, hollowed-out slums.

Yet the process has already begun, and there are many fundamental reasons for it. Outer suburbs and exurbs such as Schaumburg, Rolling Meadows, Plainfield, Bolingbroke, Zion, and other sprawling cul-de-sac wastelands are losing value much more rapidly than either Chicago or inner suburbs such as Des Plaines, Evanston, or Oak Park, and this trend is apt to accelerate as we descend the slope of fossil fuel depletion, and transportation and utilities become progressively more expensive.

Oil hit $70 a barrel a week ago, as I predicted, and is trading in the $68-72 a barrel range at this time. In the meantime, the low price of oil for the past 6 months has created a future supply problem as many rigs were pulled out of service- we have less than half as many rigs pumping world wide as we did last summer-and many development projects have been deferred or cancelled. The bald fact is that the cheap and easy oil is gone, and what remains is much more expensive to pump and refine; and $70 is the lowest price at which it is economically feasible to recover and refine such low grade sources as the Canadian tar sands, on which the United States is currently extremely dependent for its oil supply, or the expensive and risky deep-water drills. Current weak demand for oil, resulting from the economic downturn, is an extremely temporary situation, while demand for liquid fuels is growing rapidly in the world's most populous nations, India and China.

In short, we will have to pay steeply more for liquid fuels than we have been in order to produce the stuff at all. In the meantime, it has become increasingly obvious that "renewable" resources such as biomass, wind, and solar will only be able to provide a tiny fraction of our energy needs, and only at a cost that will render electrical power and motorized transportation unaffordable to about 70% of the population. We can also expect drastic price increases and more rapid depletion of other fossil fuels such as gas and coal, as we ramp up our use of them.

What this means is that the sprawl lifestyle will become utterly unaffordable for most of the people who live it now. As it is, most people have kept themselves afloat in their houses and multiple automobiles only by the reckless use of credit, and that is going to be much harder to obtain going forward. Since 1980, the economy has been driven by the extension of credit to an extent completely unprecedented in any other economy at any other time in history. That's over now, and it's not likely to resume in our lifetimes, even though our political leaders are giving it their best shot. That means that many things that lower-middle and middle-income people in the sprawl-burbs have come to consider as God-given entitlements, will no longer be within their reach. These things include 2500- square- foot houses 40 miles from work, cars for teen children, and gasoline plentiful and cheap enough for it to seem OK to jump into a car that gets 12MPG just to pick up a gallon of milk and case of beer.

This does not mean that the country has to collapse. It surely does not mean that we have to become a 3rd-world slum, even though we could if we mismanage the transition. What it does mean is that we will revert to Normalcy as it was understood before the easy lending rampage began 30 years ago. It will mean living closer to where you work, with one car per family, and much less car ownership in general. It will mean larger utility bills and living in smaller dwellings. It will mean preserving old buildings and that building something new will be taken very seriously. And it will mean a mass exodus of middle-income people from suddenly unlivable outer suburbs to places where they can live and work close to the urban amenities, such as public transit, shopping and entertainment within an easy walk or bus ride, schools the kids can walk to, and the cultural amenities that only a large city can offer.

And that really would only mean a return to things something like the way they were before our cities were destroyed by FHA and HUD-sponsored home ownership programs that redlined our city neighborhoods in the 50s, and before the interstates sliced our cities apart and made it easy and cheap to empty the cities into new auto suburbs.

I remember how life in neighborhoods like Rogers Park and Edgewater was before our cities were destroyed, for I spent my adolescence in such a neighborhood, in another city. And I remember how it, and other city neighborhoods, were quite deliberately destroyed during the 60s, and finished off completely in the 70s as our streets were taken over by thugs, and services decimated. Even in the 60s, our neighborhoods were still closely-knit places where you could obtain almost everything you needed within 4 blocks of your house, and could easily take public transit to everything else.

I never appreciated how life-giving and comfortable these neighborhoods were, and how rich was the life a teen growing up in them could live, until they were destroyed, and the people who grew up in them moved to places like Fenton, MO or Plainfield, IL, or some such a wasteland, to raise their own children. For example, most outer suburban children visit the zoo or art museum only when their parents or teachers organize an excursion that takes weeks of planning and involves considerable expense and trouble. That's sad, for I spent most of my Saturdays at the art museum or zoo in St. Louis' immense and beautiful Forest Park, because I could easily hop on a bus to go there, or to go shopping downtown after school. I could loiter along the commercial streets in my own area, with their dozens of quirky little shops, and stop at the local Bailey Farm for a milkshake. And I could do all of this in perfect safety, a safety that disappeared very quickly when the flow of the population outward to the new auto suburbs turned into a flood in the late sixties and early seventies.

We can expect this process to reverse drastically, and that the current trickle of suburban refugees will become a flood as car ownership and long commutes become unaffordable for larger percentages of the middle-income population, and as the services and conditions in outer suburbs deteriorate. And, unlike the city, which still retained its cultural amenities, its public transportation, and its dense retail and closely-knit neighborhoods, the suburbs will have nothing as they toboggan down the slope of disinvestment. The houses were built to last perhaps thirty years and cannot be recycled. The streets and roads were designed to move cars along as efficiently as possible, not to foster the close interaction of commerce and residents that make city neighborhoods so vibrant, and it is impossible to provide efficient, economical public transportation to these areas.

Neighborhoods like Rogers Park, with its large inventory of beautiful vintage housing stock, its access to the lake and to public transit and nearby retail, will benefit hugely from the coming flood of returning suburbanites. There will be a rough transition as former suburbanites relearn the habits and necessities of civil life, such as that the 155 bus isn't going to be rerouted off the street it's run on for 90 years just because one resident doesn't want it going down her street, or that your neighbors in your condominium have a right to demand you take your baby stroller up to your own unit and not store it in the lobby. But people will adjust as they rediscover the comfort and amenity and beauty of streets lined with trees that meet each other over the street, and retail 5 steps from their front doors where they can obtain every daily need without
spending a gallon of gasoline, and the peace of mind that comes from your teen being on the bus and not at the wheel of an overpowered car.

So rest easy, owners. If you can hang on for another ten years, this period will pass into distant memory as the fuel prices ratchet up and one by one, all the condos and houses now languishing on the market are snapped up. The new rental high rise buildings in Rogers Park will suddenly fill up, and rents will start to rise; and the local public schools will gain many new students who are motivated youngsters with parents who want them to succeed and will do whatever is necessary to make sure they do. There will be a demand for types of businesses that are right now having a hard time getting a solid foothold. The only thing we really have to worry about around here is making sure we plan for the coming flood, and make sure our neighborhood is appropriately planned and zoned to allow for many more multi-use buildings close to retail and transit hubs.

The Magic Jack and Other Gadget Diversions

MAGIC JACK UPDATE, JUNE 24, 2009:

This gadget is truly one of the most defect-riddled and fraudulently promoted electronic gadgets ever. Ignore the PC Magazine "Product of the Year" award, and the ads you see on television. As if the dropped calls, misdirected calls, horrid audio quality, credit-card overbillings, atrocious customer service, and lack of responsiveness to complaints were not enough, this device has caused friends calling me on my Magic Jack number to incur long distance calls as a result, even though they are calling locally!

A friend of mine who lives on Granville, 8 blocks from here, called me on my Magic Jack number from her AT&T land line numerous times within the last 6 weeks, and was billed $22.00 by her land line carrier, AT&T for these calls. They were made from her 773-area code number to my Magic Jack 773-area code number- a strictly local call. She called me, and incurred these charges as a result. She complained to AT&T, and was rudely informed that AT&T had the discretion to determine whether or not a particular call is a toll call.

Please note that AT&T provides the long distance connection for Magic Jack, as the Magic Jack user interface proclaims when you connect your device and it boots up.

That makes AT&T a party to the Magic Jack fraud.

I am lodging a complaint with every relevant authority, including but not limited to the Illinois Attorney General, the Federal Communications Commission, the local BBB, and every state and national elected official representing me, and if you are a Magic Jack user with similar issues, I would urge you to do the same.

It's not likely I can get a refund at this point, for I purchased the device two months ago at Radio Shack and paid cash. Unfortunately, after 4 weeks of relatively problem-free operation, I trusted and discarded my receipt, which was a mistake. Things started downhill steeply after 6 weeks of use, and now the device is utterly useless.

Beware.


In my endless quest to squeeze the buck and tweak the watt, I'm game for any technology that can combine many purposes in one and eliminate a bill, while making life more convenient and enhancing my emergency preparedness.

One of my cherished aims has been to totally untether myself from landlines and go completely wireless, which is now really easy and economical. My plan was to get the wireless broadband from Cricket Mobile, then purchase a Magic Jack for economical phone service.

Unfortunately, the first stage of this plan worked better than the second stage.

I ditched my RCN internet cable in favor of Cricket Mobile's unlimited broadband, which gives me unlimited wireless connectivity and 3 gigs of downloads, with no "hot spot" necessary, for $$40 a month. I'm happy to report that the connection is flawless and that this is the best internet connection I have ever experienced. It seems faster than my old RCN connection, which is $37 a month, and it compares very favorably to the wireless broadband offered by Verizon and Sprint, which use the same CDMA technology but cost $60 a month for unlimited broadband plus 5 gigs of downloads. Believe me, the 3 gigs you get from Cricket is so ample for the needs of most personal and business users that you will never know or get the good of the extra 2 gigs Sprint offers. I really don't see how those two carriers can compete with Cricket, especially since they make you sign 2-year contract while Cricket requires no contractual commitment. Cricket's cellular telephone service is the most inclusive and economical out there: $40 a month for unlimited calling and texting in the lower 48 states, $35 for unlimited calling, long distance or local, but no texting, and you get a $5 discount if you bundle it with the broadband. There is also no contractual commitment for the cellular phone. All in all, I'm thrilled with my Cricket service and believe that this company is the best mobile carrier out there.

Additionally, the salespeople at the Cricket store at Sheridan and Lawrence bent over backwards to be helpful, to the point of letting me try out my Magic Jack VoIP device and phone on their connection before I bought their broadband card.

I'm not so happy with the Magic Jack. In fact, I'm thoroughly disgusted, and have had to give up making outbound calls using this device, which makes it a waste of money since I'm past the 30 day trial service. I bought the device at the Radio Shack on Sheridan near Loyola, and I would strongly recommend to Radio Shack that they drop this product if they have not already done so. You may have seen this gadget advertised on TV. The Magic Jack is a little gadget that employes VoIP technology, or Voice-over-internet Protocol, to tranmsit and receive telephone calls over your computer, saving the cost of a cellular or land line connection. This technology was first offered by Skype and Vonage, which are subscription services. The Magic Jack works differently. You buy the device for $39.95, and that price includes a year's worth of phone service, unlimited calling at any time in the lower 48 states, and very cheap rates for calling other countries. You plug the device into a USB port on your computer, and then plug any conventional land line telephone into it, and the device boots up automatically with no installation software, and you are ready to call. At set up, you are given a choice of phone numbers, and that number is permanently assigned to your device. A great feature is that you can carry this device around the world with you and make phone calls off your local number, using it, from anywhere. After your first year, you can renew your service at $20 per year, or you can buy 5 years of service for $59.95. Sounds great, huh?

Well, not exactly. At first, the device worked very well, with only a few minor glitches, such as a habit of dropping calls. It worked well over my Cricket connection, too, for about the first 6 weeks. However, it's been downhill ever since. At first, there was a steep slippage in audio quality, when people I called said that my voice was "breaking up" , like a bad cell phone connection. This got worse, to the point where my voice is completely unintelligible to the person at the other end, while I can hear them perfectly well. Strangely, people can hear me perfectly well on incoming calls. There are also many other problems cropping up. Some callers have reached other, strange people while calling my number. Often, I cannot call out. Sometimes calls go right to the message box without the phone ringing at all. We are having similar problems with the Magic Jack in our office, even though our connection there is a DSL, and when I googled "complaints about Magic Jack", I pulled up thousands of complaints about the device. Additionally, Magic Jack provides no physical address or telephone number at which the company can be reached, making a person wonder about their basic honesty and intentions. In summary, the Magic Jack is a scam, a half-baked product brought to market and promoted with sensational advertising, before it was thoroughly developed, and unless the company improves its service very quickly, this product will be a huge failure, and some other entrepreneur will pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar and offer an improved version under a different brand name.

The Morgan At Loyola Station Now Open

Rogers Park's newest rental property, the Morgan at Loyola Station,is now open and leasing, and I took a tour last night. The building is located just south of the Loyola el station, at 1209 W. Arthur, Sheridan & Arthur.

It's an attractive and appropriate building of moderate height- 8 stories, sheathed in red brick, with large balconies for all units, and large, attractive windows. This is a full-amenity building, with a glossy lobby, a parking garage across the street, recreational facilities, a 2nd-story roof deck in back with a fire pit and a fountain, and washers and driers in all units.

The rooms are relatively large, and the extremely large windows make these apartments seem larger. The balconies are large enough to put a sofa on, as was demonstrated by the rattan sofa and chairs on the balcony of one of the display units. A great feature of this building is that the back apartments have a reasonably attractive view as well as the front, because they overlook the roof deck.

Interestingly, I was quoted rents of approximately $1100-1200 for a convertible one-bedroom, to $1800-1900 for a 2-bed 2-bath, and the large one bed I was shown was offered at $1271 plus $75 for the heat and air conditioning. These were lower rents than I remember hearing, and sure enough,when I got the promotional brochure home, the rents quoted therein were substantially higher, ranging from $1337 for the smallest units to over $2700 for the largest. Perhaps the realization that the Edgewater-Rogers Park area will not support these kinds of rents is sinking in, or they are trying to get the building rented quickly as possible.

The building is a fine addition to the neighborhood and improves the appearance and tone of this part of Sheridan Road substantially. The street feels cozier and livelier thanks to the addition of another "streetwall". Let's hope this building succeeds and that more attractive multiuse buildings like it go up close to this corner. The Devon/Sheridan area has so much going for it- proximity to a variety of retail, to transit, and to the lake, and looks to be developing into a really lively and interesting neighborhood.